THE HARRISON FOX TOP 10 LIST

A staff member of the House Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology (Harrison Fox) recently issued a list of the top 10 feared Y2K problems. For your reading pleasure...

1. oil and gas shortages

2. defense weapon failures

3. air traffic control system breakdowns

4. utility grid blackouts and brownouts

5. manufacturing and production shutdowns

6. supply base and service interruptions

7. water and sewer system breakdowns

8. public health and safety-device failures

9. embedded chip failures

10. citizen panic
Here's our take on each one:

Oil and gas shortages:
This is the major Y2K risk. We depend on non-compliant countries for oil production and shipping. Even after it reaches the United States, we have refineries, railroads, trucking, and other systems that must work perfectly for gas to get to the pump. In fact, we think oil shortages will be a major factor in the predicted economic depression.

Defense weapon failures:
Largely unknown. The DoD isn't saying much. We'll only know if these aren't compliant if they have to be used, by the way. Hopefully, we'll never know... because we never needed them.

Air traffic control system breakdowns:
Likely to occur: some areas will have working radar control systems, others won't. There is definitely a chance of an air traffic disaster if these systems fail. However, we don't think there will be a wholesale blackout of FAA radar.

Utility grid blackouts and brownouts:
No nationwide blackout, but local blackouts are very likely. Watch for rolling brownouts and unreliable power (which will be very disruptive to business, causing more down-the-line problems). In other countries, power will fail outright.

Manufacturing and production shutdowns:
Medium-case scenario. The manufacturers hit hardest will be those who depend on the largest number of suppliers: auto manufacturers, for example.

Supply base and service interruptions:
Supplies will undoubtedly be depleted on many items by the time we reach 1/1/2000, and some services will certainly be interrupted (911 for example). Emergency services are one of the key problem areas.

Water and sewer system breakdowns:
We don't expect these to be widespread, but where they occur, expect a crisis. Where there's no water, there are frightened people. And should water treatment fail in any densely-populated city, it's going to result in a near-instant state of emergency.

Public health and safety-device failures:
A big problem. We think the medical industry (hospitals, pharmaceuticals, health insurance) will be hit hard, and it will take months to straighten it all out. Watch for a disruption in Medicare checks to doctors, for example. If this lasts more then 60 days, medical practice offices will go bankrupt by the hundreds.

Embedded chip failures:
Still largely unknown what the end result will be, but without a doubt, hundreds of thousands of embedded systems are going to fail (or begin producing bad data). The key, of course, is in knowing where these systems will fail. A failure in your VCR is no big deal. A failure in a satellite is a huge problem.

Citizen panic
Won't happen in rural areas, but could indeed happen in the cities -- especially if people don't prepare until December. The more we hear bureaucrats discouraging preparedness, the worse we think the panic will get. (Some conspiracy advocates say that's the plan...)

WHAT WORRIES US RIGHT NOW:
We're worried about these things:

The recent reversal of many top bureaucrats on preparedness:
Now they're urging people to do nothing and claiming that storing food and water causes a panic.

The oil situation:
There's no faster way to a severe depression than a disruption in the oil supply. Unfortunately, a large part of our oil comes from countries that, until this year, were asking, "Y2 what?"

The sickness treatment industry:
(also called "health care" by those who don't know any better) The industry is such a mess right now -- with a monstrous paperwork shuffle that quadruples the cost of doctor visits -- that even a slight disruption will wreak havoc. Today, Medicare can throw a doctor in prison for making a series of mistakes on claim forms. With doctors' offices way behind in compliance, how many mistakes do you think are going to show up on claim forms in January? Watch for doctors to be scared silly -- some will probably drop Medicare entirely. That is, drop Medicare or go broke (or go to jail).

The China situation:
This Communist regime still maintains a military claim on the Democratic country of Taiwan, and our current administration continues to support Communist China with enabling technologies that could easily be brought to bear during the Year 2000 rollover (when U.S. defenses might be down).

The Russian situation:
It's not just the nukes, it's the entire Russian economy. Should Y2K disruptions be widespread, it would threaten the free market experiment now barely surviving in the former USSR. If things get bad, the Communist party will be able to make a comeback. Suddenly, we might be facing a Russia / China Communist alliance.

The cash situation:
Cash is still a problem. Banks aren't raising reserve levels, and the Fed isn't changing the requirements. The FDIC still maintains only 1.25 (approximately) of the accounts it insures. We're still looking at a risky money pyramid, and if the public decides to take out their cash, there simply won't be enough to go around. The banking institution is relying on propaganda -- instead of shoring up reserves -- to prevent a cash run. It might work, too.

Paper-thin emergency services:
Some 911 systems will go down, and just about everywhere, police will be spread paper-thin. In fact, nearly all the needed public safety officials are going to be stretched: fire, law-enforcement, medical, etc.

The biological terrorism scenario:
With the United States now angering so many bioterrorism-capable countries (Iraq, for example), the threat of a biological terrorist strike during the Y2K rollover seems much higher than usual. Any terrorist welcomes disruption, especially in emergency services. Add a bio-bomb to a city-wide water failure, for example, and you've got mass casualties -- precisely what the bio-terrorist wants. It's too good to be true... if you're a terrorist.

Are these predictions?
No. But they're legitimate concerns. Each one, in fact, has been supported by various CIA / FBI reports or Congressional testimony. Each one represents a real-world risk that might occur around the Y2K rollover. Then again, they might not. But as we've maintained since the inception of Y2KNEWSWIRE.COM, it's better to be prepared just in case.

If you cruise the Internet, you'll find a hundred reasons to prepare:
Earth changes, Biblical prophecy, psychic predictions, nuclear war, La Nina, crop failures, a virus outbreak, you name it. But the goal isn't necessarily to name the threat. Rather, it's becoming immune to almost any threat. As we've stated before, being prepared for Y2K gets you prepared for lots of things. And if you store your supplies well, you've got a decade of preparedness under your belt.

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